The Race is Close
It is getting exciting today over at electoral-vote.com:
The poll also concluded that without Nader, Kerry is leading Bush nationally by 48% to 45% and with Nader by 46% to 45% with Nader at 3%. Among likely voters, it is Kerry 47%, Bush 47%, Nader 3%. The Harris national poll (Sept. 9-13) puts Kerry ahead 48% to 47% and the Pew poll (Sept. 11-14) puts Bush ahead 47% to 46%. In contrast, Gallup (Sept. 13-15) has Bush ahead 55% to 42%.
Unfortunately, the current electoral map looks like a massive Bush landslide. But a lot of those polls are well within the Margin of Error so you really don’t know where that is going. More interesting, though:
Jimmy Breslin of Newsday claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry’s strength.
There’s been a lot of hubbub lately about Kerry’s weak numbers and how it looks like he’ll lose. I think that a lot of that is the media looking for exciting stuff to report. From all I can tell, things are really close, and could break either way. Kerry hasn’t gotten his message out so well, and all the Democrats going hysterical over media reports … well, that doesn’t help. But maybe it motivates them to get on the ball and kick ass.
And while his lack of charisma pains me, I have a lot of faith that he’s a very smart guy with a lot of clever people helping him, and more than that, that we Americans have some dim sense of what an awful deal of a President we’ve got now. Honestly, we didn’t vote for him last time, why should we vote for him now?
